Estimation of the market value of a soccer player: Messi and Ronaldo case

Estimación del valor de mercado de un jugador de futbol: caso Messi y Ronaldo

Abstract

In this work, a model formulated through an Analytical Hierarchical Process is proposed to estimate the market value of soccer players in the forward position. The model consists of three criteria: sporting, personal and professional and each of them is broken down into an additional set of sub-criteria. The contribution of the work is that it integrates the analysis offered by the model, with real estate valuation techniques adapted to soccer players, which in turn incorporate the value of a soccer player's contract into the analysis. The developed model allows estimating the market value of a player, knowing the results of a group of comparable players offered by the model and their contract values. In this way it is possible to know, not only the comprehensive performance of the player based on the criteria and sub-criteria of the model, but also to determine when a player was undervalued or overvalued by comparing what was the analysis of his comprehensive performance within the framework of a set of comparable players, with the value of their contract. The methodology was applied to two contemporary emblematic players: Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo during the nine years that they coincided in the Spanish professional soccer league.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP, Soccer, Messi, Ronaldo.